# Calculation Guidance 2 – Tykr – Fair Value

As mentioned on Investopedia.com, “There is no universal standard for calculating the intrinsic value of a company.”

The Fair Value is the estimated share price of a stock in 10 years.

The Tykr Fair Value calculation is inspired by Benjamin Graham and Phil Town but we made a few small changes. You may learn more about Phil’s calculations and principles in his books (Rule #1, Payback Time, and Invested).

Here are the calculation differences:

• Benjamin Graham Fair Value = (EPS(8.5+(1g))*4.4)/Y
• Phil Town Fair Value = (Share Price*(1+15%)^10)/4
• Tykr Fair Value = (Share Price*(1+Annualized EPS Growth Rate)^10)/4

With the Tykr Fair Value, we created what we call a “Swim Lane,” where the EPS Growth Rate will fall between 15% and 30%.

• If the Annualized EPS Growth Rate is equal or greater than 30%, the highest growth rate is set to 30%.
• If the Annualized EPS Growth Rate is equal or less than 15%, the lowest growth rate is set to 15%.

By adding this swim lane, we allow stocks that are consistently growing EPS much faster to be represented more accurately. In other words, if a weak stock is given a growth rate of 15%, why would we give a great business the same growth rate? That’s not an accurate representation of a stock’s growth rate potential. Let’s use a sports analogy. Let’s say you’re a Football Coach (American Football) for the NFL, and you have 3 quarterbacks on your roster. Are you going to look at each quarterback equally regarding game performance? If you did, then you would randomly start each quarterback on each given game day. The reality is you’ll start the quarterback who has the strongest track record of scoring points and winning games. So going back to businesses, if a business has a track record of increasing its EPS year over year greater than weaker businesses, it should be given a higher rating, not an equal rating.

Overall, Phil’s Fair Value is a great start, but it’s not a realistic projection of where a stock is going.

So let’s break down the Tykr Fair Value calculation so we know what each part means.

Tykr Fair Value = (Share Price*(1+Annualized EPS Growth Rate)^10)/4

• Share Price = The retail price of a stock. This is what you and I can buy the stock for.
• Annualized EPS Growth Rate = We use 16 quarters. If you use 5 years or 10 years, your results will be very similar because of the annualized math. In summary, if a company continues to increase its profitability year over year without adding more shares, this is a great sign. We use the EPS Growth Rate over the Share Price Growth Rate because the EPS is a result of the net income divided by the number of shares. Share price, on the other hand, can move based on emotions. That’s why the share price growth rate is a misleading indicator.
• 10 = Estimated share price in 10 years. We use the “10-10 Rule.” As Warren Buffett states, “If you are not willing to own a stock for 10 years, do not even think of owning it for 10 minutes.”  Our Fair Value only considers buy and hold stocks. We’re not traders, we’re investors. We’re looking to make investments in stocks and let those stocks make us money through the power of compound interest.
• 4 = We divide the share price by 4 to create a very conservative estimate. Full credit goes to Phil Town. 🙂

Fair Value Calculation Equation + Examples

Equation: (Share Price*(1+Annualized EPS Growth Rate)^10)/4 = Tykr Fair Value

• If the Annualized EPS Growth Rate is equal or greater than 30%, the highest growth rate is set to 30%.
• If the Annualized EPS Growth Rate is equal or less than 15%, the lowest growth rate is set to 15%.

Where…

• Share Price = Current Share Price
• Annualized EPS Growth Rate = Annualized EPS Growth Rate over 4 years
• 10 = 10 years for the Rule of 10
• 4 = Conservative estimate

Data inputs you’ll require…

• Share Price
• EPS = EPS TTM
• EPS4 = EPS 4 Years Past
• 10
• 4

Equation 1

Equation 1 Description:  We need to determine the total EPS growth rate over 4 years.

Equation 1:  (EPS – EPS4)/(ABS(EPS4)) = Total EPS Growth Rate

Equation 2

Equation 2 Description: We need to determine the annualized EPS growth rate over those 4 years.

Equation 2:  (1+(Total EPS Growth Rate))^(1/4)-1 = Annualized EPS Growth Rate

• If the Annualized EPS Growth Rate is equal or greater than 30%, the highest growth rate is set to 30%.
• If the Annualized EPS Growth Rate is equal or less than 15%, the lowest growth rate is set to 15%.

Equation 3

Equation 3 Description:  Now we need to determine the Fair Value.

Equation 3:  (Share Price*(1+Annualized EPS Growth Rate)^10)/4 = Tykr Fair Value

Fair Value Calculation for Google (GOOGL)

Data inputs you’ll require…

• Share Price = \$1,731
• EPS = 49.59
• EPS4 = 23.11
• 10
• 4

Equation 1

Equation 1 Description:  We need to determine the total EPS growth rate over 4 years.

Equation 1:  (EPS – EPS4)/(ABS(EPS4)) = Total EPS Growth Rate

Equation:  (49.59 – 23.11)/(ABS(23.11)) = 114.58%

Equation 2

Equation 2 Description: We need to determine the annualized EPS growth rate over those 4 years.

Equation 2:  (1+(Total EPS Growth Rate))^(1/4)-1 = Annualized EPS Growth Rate

Equation:  (1+(1.1458))^(1/4)-1 = 21.03%

Equation 3

Equation 3 Description:  Now we need to determine the Fair Value.

Equation 3:  (Share Price*(1+Annualized EPS Growth Rate)^10)/4 = Tykr Fair Value

Equation:  (1,731*(1+.2103)^10)/4 = \$2,918.92

Fair Value Calculation for Facebook (META)

Data inputs you’ll require…

• Share Price = \$277
• EPS = 6.48
• EPS4 = 1.31
• 10
• 4

Equation 1

Equation 1 Description:  We need to determine the total EPS growth rate over 4 years.

Equation 1:  (EPS – EPS4)/(ABS(EPS4)) = Total EPS Growth Rate

Equation:  (6.48 – 1.31)/(ABS(1.31)) = 394.66%

Equation 2

Equation 2 Description: We need to determine the annualized EPS growth rate over those 4 years.

Equation 2:  (1+(Total EPS Growth Rate))^(1/4)-1 = Annualized EPS Growth Rate

Equation:  (1+(3.9466))^(1/4)-1 = 49.13%

The Annualized EPS Growth Rate is 49.13% which is higher than 30%.  So, in this case, we change the Annualized EPS Growth Rate to 30% below.

Equation 3

Equation 3 Description:  Now we need to determine the Fair Value.

Equation 3:  (Share Price*(1+Annualized EPS Growth Rate)^10)/4 = Tykr Fair Value

Equation:  (277*(1+.3)^10)/4 = \$954.67