S2E19 Matthew Murawski Navigating the bear market

S2E19 – Matthew Murawski – Navigating the bear market

Matthew Murawski

Matthew Murawski – Navigating the bear market. My next guest is a wealth manager who shares his story of building his practice and getting started in the market. In this episode, we talk about what he invests in, some of his winners, some of his losers, and how he navigates this bear market. Please welcome Matthew Murawski. Payback Time Podcast
Payback Time is a podcast for investors. The goal of this podcast is to help make investing approachable and easy to understand. We will interview beginner and experienced investors and ask them to share stories on how they got started, what challenges they faced, what mistakes they made, and what strategy works for them today. The overall objective is to provide you with a roadmap that helps you become a better investor.

Key Timecodes

00:55 – Background

03:40 – Starting the career: from answering phones to managing investments

08:10 – A different context of information access in the recent past

10:25 – The experience at the market helping the decisions as an advisor

12:34 – Starting in mechanics, from working as a Gym to wealth manager

15:14 – When he started in the investment market

16:07 –  Amount he started his investments with.

17:05 –  Today’s investment strategy

18:18 – How to choose a stock.

20:46 – The bear market and how to find the right opportunities

22:09 – What stocks does he currently hold

24:10 – How many stocks is a good number for a healthy portfolio?

25:30 – What is his biggest investment success

26:31 – His returns at the recent market dip

26:57 – And what is his strategy to face the present challenges

33:17 – Rapid fire round (personal questions)

34:05 – The best investment advice he ever received

34:33 – And the worst investment advice he ever received

35:42 – Guest contacts


[00:00:03.430] – Intro
Payback Time is a podcast about building businesses wealth and financial freedom. We try to uncover the challenges our guests faced, the mistakes they made, and the steps they took to achieve their goals. The overall objective is to provide you with a roadmap that leads to your own success. Sean Tepper is your host. Are you ready? It’s Payback Time.
[00:00:32.970] – Sean
My next guest is a wealth manager.
[00:00:34.650] – Sean
Who shares a story of building his.
[00:00:36.420] – Sean
Practice and getting started in the market. In this episode, we talk about what he invests in some of his winners, some of his losers, and how he navigates this bear market. Please welcome Matthew Morozki. Matthew, welcome to the show.
[00:00:49.880] – Matthew
Hey, it’s great to be here.
[00:00:52.150] – Sean
Good to have you here. So why don’t you kick us off and tell us a little bit about your background?
[00:00:56.190] – Matthew
Sure. I’m a fellow Midwest kind of guy from Ohio, and I packed up my Dodge Neon with $300 in my pocket when I was 20 and a half and moved to the Bay Area. And I didn’t know what I wanted to do, but I just knew the opportunity at that point wasn’t in Ohio for me. And so I went out to the Bay Area and I got a job answering phone to the VC firm because I was supposed to go to San Francisco for a marketing job and I flipped over my handlebars on the way to the ferry and broke my collarbone. So I ended up whatever Grace ended up being answering phones in this VC firm. Got to work my way up through that up in Marin, just across the Golden Gate Bridge. It was a great way to learn. Like I sat behind some of these traders, they were professional traders and just ask them questions every day. I found everything about how the gears of the financial system works just completely fascinating. And so I did that and the money was great. It was exciting, Wall Street kind of life, but it was somewhat hollow, so I wasn’t super happy.
[00:02:08.220] – Matthew
And at the end I realized I packed up and I moved to La. And down here. I knew I was going to work in the market somewhere, but I ended up meeting up with Alan Goodstein. So Goodstein Wealth Management is our firm and we hit it off and he said, I’m looking for someone to bring underneath me that can build a business and be my succession plan later on because now he’s in his mid sixty s. And so that was 2012. I started with him, built my book. The first five years of anything I think is just miserable and horrible. So built my book while I was peacemailing income from other areas because we don’t start off one, two or three clients that does not pay the bills.
[00:02:53.500] – Sean
That’s it.
[00:02:54.060] – Matthew
And so I’ve been with them ever since. And tail end of this year, formalizing the buyout process and he’s going to start retiring and I’ve been fortunate to build a business. He said, if you do what’s right for the client, you’ll have a great business. And so it really is we’re fiduciaries and it really is that simple. So in a short form, there’s lots of other miniature stories inside that, but that’s how I came to be here in Century City, Los Angeles.
[00:03:19.910] – Sean
I love this background. I want to jump into some of the facets of your journey there before we get into your investing journey, which is that’s what our listeners really like to hear. But on the VC side, how many years did you work in VC?
[00:03:33.690] – Matthew
From six to I left in 2010. So just a little over four years, give or take.
[00:03:40.070] – Sean
Okay. And I’m curious, what kind of roles did you work in?
[00:03:44.430] – Matthew
Like I said, I literally started answering the phone.
[00:03:46.960] – Sean
[00:03:47.290] – Matthew
And I sat behind this gentleman’s name was Marlin. And like I said, I just kind of picked his brain every day. And so we did a lot of biotech, like small cap companies, taking in public, raising money, investing in companies. So I literally started from and I think it’s the best way in any business if you really want to learn it, it doesn’t feel the best way at that time as you’re broke and poor, but like, you literally, from everything, from putting together perspective, investor packets, just everything, putting things together up into learning how to like, valuation. So you learn little by little. And the more questions, for whatever reason, I was the only one in that firm that had a thousand. I’m a naturally curious person. So I had 1000 questions, and I was like, how does this all work? I was like, well, how does this work? Why does the company stock price matter? If the company is still selling Widgets, why does it matter? If their stock goes from 100 to ten, why does it matter? All these very basic, fundamental things I need to learn, can’t really learn. So we started eventually going out and raising we set up a second arm of the firm where we are going out and raising money for specific projects.
[00:05:07.680] – Matthew
And we had two biofuel companies in Baytown, Texas, that didn’t work out. But going down there, it was like being like a liaison to the company and kind of literally working everything from ground materials up until, like, okay, what are the seed rounds? What are the evaluations? How do we get you public? How do we get you the money that we need to so a lot of it was relationship forming. And like I said, I started on the phone, so when people would call in, everybody got to know me, and for whatever reason, midwest guy talking to people on the phone, they remembered me. So when people I got brought into conversation that I had no business being a part of conversation. So I was literally leaked forward. This 20 something year old kid because people were talking to me over the phone. They had no idea that I had long hair. And I was literally 20 something years at that point I had long hair. Now I have receding hairline. So I got thrown into situations that were well ahead of my time. But that’s how you learn.
[00:06:05.740] – Sean
Were you taking calls from like, accredited investors looking to invest?
[00:06:10.110] – Matthew
Yeah, definitely part of it. Accredited investors dealing with the CEOs of companies that were the owner of the firm at that time. He was exwall street and connections and just learning like deal guys and fundraisers and all these there’s so many different components. But yeah, talking to investors and at that point, you have to be very careful about what you can say, what you can’t say about something. So you have to tread much like we have to now that you’re fully licensed and everything else. But yeah, talking to investors, talking to companies and really learning, like just learning the market. There are certain times where we really do have to go public at the right time. No one’s going public right now for a very good reason. You know what I mean? Yeah.
[00:06:55.270] – Sean
The reason I asked that is there’s not too many people I know that move from venture capital to personal wealth management. It really has to be a personal, mission driven move. And it sounds like in your case, that’s exactly it.
[00:07:08.270] – Matthew
Yes. And I’m not saying for all VC firms, I still have a lot of friends that are in that field. But as I learned more, there were things going on that did not fit my ethics or my moral compass, so to speak. Sure. And a lot of that does happen on that end of that side. I was making stupid money at a very young age because I advanced really quickly, but I was not happy and why am I kind of miserable and everything else? And I decided to leave in 2010 and I was like, well, it’s either New York or La. And La is warmer. So I decided to come down to Los Angeles and figure it out while I had a nice little savings to.
[00:07:55.840] – Sean
Do so with the ethics. I do have to ask, you don’t have to answer, but are there any red flags that we as investors should pay attention to? Like, anything that we’re pushing your buttons? That was a no go zone for you, essentially.
[00:08:10.570] – Matthew
Yeah. There’s so much more information that is more widely spread now. Remember when I started there, I think that was the advent of the iPhone, which sounds so long ago, but it is long ago. But it’s not that long ago. And things like YouTube and now information flows so much more free. Like, those things were around, but they were in their infancy. You didn’t have movies like, I don’t know if you’ve seen like, We Crashed and you’ve seen the other financial documentaries none of those were those were not a thing yet. So people are, well, more versed now. But the thing you should get paid fairly, but there’s a lot of things that go on in the background where most of the money is made before the company has gone public, and then what’s sold to the public is essentially garbage. And we’ve seen a lot of that with the SPAC market. I don’t know a single spec, and there’s some great companies that are specs right now, but it’s like I would have to really dig to find one that’s trading above where it went public. Same thing for IPOs. I bought a few of the specs I got my chin handed me on Draft Kings because that’s an ugly story I had for myself.
[00:09:22.050] – Matthew
It was just early and the market was crazy. We all have losers and no one wants to talk about. That was one of my losers. Drafting. Turns out they’re just spending way too much money. But you find out that once the company is sold public, the valuation is already so bloomed that there’s not much room to go other than to the downside and the people that are out. I don’t buy anything that’s recently gone public, and I’m happy to miss out on that. But the reality is you have to be very careful because you didn’t get burned very quickly. Because where they’re just selling stock, they don’t care. They need to go on to the next project. So we’ve seen that. I think it’s going to be really good for the younger investor because they got completely obliterated. So it’ll be a good educator. Wall Street University. But yeah, you have to watch out for the valuations, and anything that’s going public should be very careful with the tykr.
[00:10:14.890] – Sean
We do warn that to most IPOs you already know this, but going public to raise funds and typically their financial statements aren’t in a very good spot. I want to touch on just two things here, and then we’ll get into your investment journey. So one is, I really like your background. This is not a bad thing against advisors or wealth managers, but most of them don’t have experience running businesses. Like, they haven’t built and sold businesses. They haven’t operated within a large public company and dealt with big budgets. We’re talking millions of dollars, and that’s fine. But you have this experience from the VC world, which is kind of like a crash course in how businesses are really run. That gives you an advantage, in my opinion, over other advisers. So I think you’re in a good spot there with your business.
[00:11:05.330] – Matthew
Yeah, I felt that way just because, like I said, when I went into it, I knew nothing. I had to ask the very simple questions of, like, why does it matter if you’re selling the same amount of widgets, cars, blueberries, whatever your company is, quest bars or whatever it might be, and your stock, I said, goes from ten to one or 100. Why does that stock price have any not stupid questions? If I have a question, I’ll ask it, even if I sound like an idiot. Even today, like when I talk to our back office, like TD Ameritrade, things are constantly changing and you have to be constantly evolving. And if you pretend, especially being a younger adviser, when I started out, pretending like, you know, everything is not a good way to go. It’s like, listen, I don’t know everything. However, if I don’t know something, I do have a great sphere of people. I can find out the answer because I get to see how the sauce is made. Like they always say, you don’t want to see how the sauce is made because the spaghetti doesn’t taste as good. And there is a lot of truth to that.
[00:12:06.620] – Matthew
But it’s very valuable to be in this industry to understand how the gears work. And it’s nice to have a different kind of background.
[00:12:13.730] – Sean
For sure you’re going to have a different lens over the products. Like if you’re offering index funds, mutual funds, or ETFs to your customers or individual stocks, you kind of have a leg up because you know what kind of businesses are within, how they’re built, how they can scale, how they can see downturn. Of course, so you can see the good, bad and ugly. But what did you do? Because you mentioned five years of hustle, you had to make cash in other areas. I love side hustle stories like this. So what else did you do to generate cash flow?
[00:12:45.070] – Matthew
You’re going to love this story. It was something I used to be embarrassed to tell people. But I was a mechanic. I grew up Ohio. I was a rower. I rode in college. I was also a mechanic, making money, doing whatever I could do. So I had nothing to do. I moved to La. Big city. I don’t know anybody. I was like, I was looking for stuff I like to do. So I started teaching fitness classes at Equinox. I got hired by Nike Training. I did a whole bunch of film workouts, like daily site called Daily Burn, Power, Music, like all these kinds of things. All these opportunities that bloomed out of just doing something that I genuinely like to do. And on the mechanics side, I got the contract for all Southern California to go fix the rowing machines at every single gym. Literally, I’m like, I don’t care. I know how to work with my hands. I will do whatever. So I was literally fixing I was going to private homes in Bel Air to fix the rowing machines. This is a crazy thing I have just completely I was at it. And the nice thing about that was I didn’t know anybody.
[00:13:55.120] – Matthew
So I built a network of people that just knew me. Some of my initial clients came from people that took my class, and that’s actually how I met my wife and everything else. That’s how I got started. That’s how I paid the bills. So that’s how I did it.
[00:14:11.340] – Sean
Yes. Very inspirational, especially for the entrepreneurs listening. It’s like it’s not instant gratification. If you got a business with a lot of upside potential, like a wealth management practice or see a lot of businesses out there, like SAS businesses or some kind of fee based business, I think of, like, the squares and PayPal out there and that tech space. Anyway, you do not start off big. It takes a while to get the machine moving. And five years in your case.
[00:14:39.180] – Matthew
That’s awesome.
[00:14:40.020] – Sean
Good for you.
[00:14:41.080] – Matthew
Oh, yeah. I felt like you plead loser failure for half of a decade. I mean, it’s only because of the work I put in when I had nothing. I had two suits. One was an Express suit, the other one, I think it was a Banana Republic suit. I spent down to zero. I’m so much more gratifying now.
[00:15:02.870] – Sean
Yes. Awesome story. Well, let’s transition a little bit. This is the real meat of the conversation. Although what we just talked about was amazing. That was actually really inspirational. So let’s dive in. Investing. What year did you get started in the stock market?
[00:15:19.870] – Matthew
It would have been around 2004. So 2004, I own stuff like that. My parents like little I think I have $500 UGMA account or something like that. But 2004 is when I really started messing around. I remember opening up a Roth IRA and not really understanding what it was and selling out of it and closing, doing all the stupid things that now I coach people not to do. I didn’t even know what’s the difference? After literally starting from nothing and buying stocks and learning how penny stocks, I bought everything from the dirtiest junk to high quality Apple about 2004 is when I started really kind of diving in and creating an interest.
[00:16:08.000] – Sean
All right, so you kind of learned by trying different things. I’m curious here. What dollar amount did you start with first? Was it that 500 or was it.
[00:16:15.780] – Matthew
No, it was probably two, three grand that I first started with. Sure saved up to three grand. One of my best friends now who is a broker, Jani Montgomery Scott, he’s the one. He’s like, Listen, open up a Roth IRA. And I was like, John, where do I buy? It doesn’t matter. Just buy any. Just open it up and just start buying stuff and don’t sell it. That’s kind of how I got started. And I definitely made the mistake of selling. One of the biggest mistakes in investing is I didn’t have the money to really be putting in then, and so I put it all in then. Of course, like it happened, I had to take it back out. And so you deal with all those kinds of things, but you learned some really good lessons, but you just learn and you lose money. You make money and you move forward.
[00:17:06.100] – Sean
So what’s your personal investment strategy today?
[00:17:09.770] – Matthew
Right now I just had a bunch of money come in and some new clients, something very cautious. But right now my investment strategy is listed. Anything should be at least three to five years. If you’re buying something, you’ve got to be willing to hold it for three to five years because you don’t know what part of the cycle that you’re in. So you don’t know if you’re at the start. It’s time in the market, not timing the market. Like, the difference of my investing strategy is it’s like building a house. You have to have the foundation, right? The basement. If you’re in the Midwest, we have tornadoes, which might be your bonds. Right. You start off, I wouldn’t be buying bonds now. But you have your bonds, large cap growth value, mid, small, some international, some real estate, and you kind of build up from the bottom. It’s a matter of building a diversified base so that they get the ride of the market and then adding on individual stocks.
[00:18:07.160] – Sean
Just to give context here. And then we’ll go into what you actually hold. But we definitely do not trade, but we do hold very focused portfolios of stocks. Like, we try to tell people ten to 15 stocks, but great businesses. And our tool does that analysis to get people there. So there are people out there who are just buying stocks because of the name or the logo or because somebody told them, not a good strategy, you’re setting yourself up for failure.
[00:18:33.270] – Matthew
But I had five or six clients. It’s a newly public company, but they’re like, Oh man, we love Oatly. We drink it every day. I don’t know if you’re familiar. It’s the Oat milk for coffee. We love Oatley. We love this. Buffett says, buy things that you use. And like, I think Oatley is down maybe 90%, maybe. Like you said, you have to have a great business. You have to require a next level of involvement. Like, most of 95% of my clients do not want to be super involved and they don’t really want to know.
[00:19:10.930] – Sean
I was looking at Lead to see if it’s in tykr yet. It’s not quite there. It is a penny stock. It’s pretty cheap. I think like three or $4.
[00:19:19.570] – Matthew
I think it was up at like 21 ouch.
[00:19:23.310] – Sean
Yeah. And then it went up to 28. And now here it’s at 385 Ouch.
[00:19:29.550] – Sean
Let’s take a quick commercial break. Do you feel like stock investing is too confusing, too time consuming, too risky? It doesn’t have to be. If you ever considered investing on your own but don’t know where to start, tykr is your solution. Tykr safely guides you through your investment journey by finding great stocks and showing you why those stocks are on sale, giving you the confidence that you’re making a wise investment. I created tykr because, number one, I wanted to remove emotions from investing. In other words, I wanted a software to make buying and selling decisions for me so I don’t have to. Number two, I wanted to save time. Analyzing stocks can take hours, if not.
[00:20:10.830] – Sean
Days, and I didn’t want to spend.
[00:20:12.260] – Sean
All day looking at a computer. I have other hobbies in life I’d rather be enjoying. I’ve been using tykr the last five years to generate average returns ranging between 15% and 50% per year. Seeing that I was generating consistent high returns multiple years in a row motivated me to turn this software into a tool to share with others. If you’re interested, you can get started with a free trial. Visit tykr.com. That’s tykr.com again, tykr.com.
[00:20:46.230] – Sean
Well, my opinion is you can’t judge stocks right now because the bear market is pulling everything down, which is it’s a great thing because we’re getting all these deals in the market because I’ve got stocks that are strong financials great businesses, like we teach people, look at the forums, you get the margin of safety, which encompasses the math, and you get the meaning mode management. If all four check out, you got yourself great business. So some of those stocks are like, down 80%, but I’m like, Oh, baby, time to buy. Big time.
[00:21:21.970] – Matthew
Every boom creates the seeds of the next recession and the next recession blooms the seeds of the next boom. Right. Looking at 2020 was one of the investing opportunities of a decade, if not lifetime. And it looks like, depending on how low we go, this is going to be the same. I just don’t think we’re going to have that and I don’t think it’s going to be as quick out of it. I think it’s going to be a little bit slower, but we’ll see.
[00:21:46.520] – Sean
To me, this is kind of mirroring the crash in 2008. It’s not that sharp spike down and up like the Covet dip.
[00:21:53.860] – Matthew
[00:21:54.420] – Sean
This is going to be 2008, you went down 38%, 2009 up 24%. I think it kind of gradually went up from there. If you held funds, it took you a long time to recover. But individual businesses, good businesses, really spiked quickly. Yeah, I’m going to keep going here. You mentioned a few stocks you hold. What other stocks do you hold right now?
[00:22:14.740] – Matthew
So, like I said, unless it’s an all stock portfolio, we hold mainly ETFs, and there’s a generational divide. Right. Like, my partner out, he uses ETFs too, but he’s more old school, like mutual fund. I can’t give advice for anybody specifically, but for myself, I can tell you in buying Apple, I did buy the airlines during the pandemic as a trade, and it was fantastic trade things that I own that I see long term that I think you’re going to need something I really liked for myself. I like PayPal a lot, I like sofa a lot. I love Nvidia Broadcom. Companies that I like to buy, I like to average into. If they go down, it doesn’t worry me.
[00:23:03.050] – Sean
Right, right.
[00:23:04.100] – Matthew
So businesses that I think are going to be there. But yes, I own boring things. I own exciting things, like McDonald’s, I like to own. Tesla is something I own. Like my partner would not own. Allen would not be caught dead owning Tesla. Right. Because the valuation doesn’t if you look at the valuation, I get it, but I don’t own Tesla because it’s a car company. I think it’s much more than that. I hate PCs and Microsoft, but Microsoft, Amazon, my God. Can you imagine telling somebody, twelve months ago you’d be able to buy Amazon where it is today?
[00:23:37.420] – Sean
It’s crazy.
[00:23:38.210] – Matthew
It’s not I was going to say.
[00:23:40.100] – Sean
I’ve got two overlaps there Apple and PayPal. I am long on both. PayPal, boy, have they taken a beating. But the power that that app has 200 countries and territories, amount of revenue streams within the same model, to me, it’s like, oh, man, I’ve never seen a buying opportunity like this, ever with that stock.
[00:23:59.170] – Matthew
PayPal is a fantastic service. I can’t imagine. I mean, like you said, all the fundamentals are there. That whole segment is out of favor.
[00:24:08.940] – Sean
Yeah, you’ve done your homework. I’m going to keep going. A few more stock questions here. How many stocks would you say you do hold in your portfolio? This is a key question our listeners like to know.
[00:24:18.540] – Matthew
Yeah, I can’t really keep my head with everything else, managing the business and everything else. About 20 to 25 stocks.
[00:24:27.520] – Sean
[00:24:27.940] – Matthew
Basically, the way I have my screen set up, I’ve got kind of an overall watch list that has like 150 different stocks that I do kind of watch that I’m looking at. And then I whittle it down. Right. And then I whittle down to what I actually own. And I think right now it’s about 24, 25 stocks that I’m actively placing in portfolios known for myself. You can spread yourself way too thin. And I’ve done that before. If I was just a trader and just doing it, I’m sure you could do a lot more. But when you’re managing client after client money and you want to stay up to speed and really know your company, there’s probably a lot of smarter guys that can manage 50 to 75. But right around that range, as far as concentrated positions is about as deep as I can go.
[00:25:15.310] – Sean
Yeah, I would agree with you. I think most people, when you get to 25, 30, it becomes really hard to manage. And not only manage, but monitor what’s going on with the businesses and the competition with each. Let me keep going here. What was your biggest investment success?
[00:25:36.570] – Matthew
Biggest investment success? No, Ally Financial is one of them. Okay, Ally Financial.
[00:25:44.490] – Sean
And how was it a success? Was it a return in a given year over a certain duration of time.
[00:25:49.680] – Matthew
Yeah, I’m sure it’s come down. It was one of the Pandemic stocks that we bought, and it’s just done fantastic. But like, other ones that I really like super boring things that I would have never bought. Like BG Foods during the Pandemic pays a fantastic dividend. Food company when the restaurants are coming back and it’s come back down now a little bit, but like, certain things that were just US. Foods, it doesn’t pay dividend. But like, USSD was another one. It was a perfect storm. I was like, Listen, this is the time to be buying stocks. You were negligent if you didn’t make a ton of money in 2020.
[00:26:29.390] – Sean
Yeah, it’s the market. Can you share with us what were your returns in 2000 and 22,021?
[00:26:37.120] – Matthew
My return in 2020 was north of 50%.
[00:26:41.540] – Sean
[00:26:42.520] – Matthew
Yes. So it was just over 50%.
[00:26:47.970] – Sean
Yeah, go ahead.
[00:26:49.500] – Matthew
I didn’t do anything crazy, which is where I’m headed currently.
[00:26:57.010] – Sean
I’d like to know, what are you doing right now with the market being down as much as it is?
[00:27:02.060] – Matthew
You know, I feel super blessed because my phone’s not ringing, and it means that I’ve been able to do a decent job at communicating with my clients. Because when I talk to people, I’m like, listen, I have a lot of clients that are really close to retirement, so it’s not the same conversation with them. But for most people, I’m like, you got to be really excited. I just opened up a 401K here in the Valley. And the guys are like, man, this seems like the worst time. You got to understand, we just opened up this 401K. They do weekly payrolls and, like, you’re putting money in on a weekly basis. This is a gift from Santa Claus himself that you’re starting this. I’m like, Listen, it might get a lot worse, but who gives a shit? Let’s hope it gets a lot worse, because if it does, you’re going to be buying in. Like, unless you don’t believe in the future, which I do believe that the future is going to be bumpy, but I do think it’s going to be better than the present. I think the future I think things like when you say to people, seeing Dow 50,060 70,000 sounds crazy until you realize numerically, if you’re young enough, it’s not crazy unless there are zombies in the street or were taken over by Russia or North Korea.
[00:28:12.710] – Matthew
Things that you can’t but what I’m doing right now is I haven’t been buying in the last two and a half weeks. I started buying a little bit too early when we kind of fell off the initial cliff. We got those thousand point days. I started doing some dollar cost averaging in mostly ETFs because I felt like that the individual stocks, it was just a slaughter fest. And I was like, I didn’t feel comfortable buying any individual stocks because even the ones I like, because I was like, they’re probably going to go lower. So right now I’m kind of holding steady and I’m hoping we hit that 3400 mark and I’m hoping that that’s the bottom, but we’ll wait and see. So after today, I don’t think inflation peaked. I mean, I had to fill up my tank. It’s almost $8 a gallon here in West La. So I paid $144. And the CPI number is garbage anyways because we know inflation is 8.6 is much higher. I don’t know what people are buying that’s like the low end, right? Because you know, there’s things not factored in there. But when I hear the FedEx lady come into the office and talk to the front desk about how they’re starting to learn how to portion out pot roast meals, so they last another day or two because food is so expensive and how they can even afford it.
[00:29:26.300] – Matthew
I don’t know how the average person is affording to do anything right now because of the price of oil. The price of oil is everything. So until oil comes down, I don’t see this market getting any relief because oil is like I told my wife, I’m like, it’s in your shampoo, it’s in your body wash, it’s in your conditioner, it’s in all the plastics, it’s in your computer chips. The price of oil dictates everything because they get that same batch of strawberries when they’re having to fuel up their car, their trucks, like it affects everything. And I don’t really know what the catalyst will be that oil comes down short term. And so I think we can go a bit lower, but I certainly don’t know. I don’t pretend to know. That’s my best guess. I’m happy to be wrong and this is the bottom, but I think technically wise, you probably know better than I do. I think all signs point that we’re.
[00:30:20.950] – Sean
Going the wrong way and I’m actually okay with it. With a Nasdaq, I think we’re at or close to the bottom with tech stocks. With SMP 500, I have read a few people out there talk about you could go a little lower than on tech stocks. I did a video the other day talking about the last 19 bear markets on average go down nine months, about 37%. And the SNP could fall a little bit. We’re just over 30% down. I think I’m an Aztec, so maybe it goes down a little bit more, but SMP is a little bit more to fall and that could trigger I think you’re right with SMP, I think it’s at 36 today, 3600, maybe it goes 34. That could be bottom. But people are saying this fall is when this rally could happen.
[00:31:09.070] – Matthew
I think the rally, in my opinion, I think when oil breaks and it looks like the inflation number breaks and we get a couple more of these rate hikes in, I think the rally is going to be ravenous. I really do. Yes, and what concerns me more than anything is I hate holding cash. I really hate holding cash.
[00:31:30.180] – Sean
[00:31:32.950] – Matthew
My biggest fear and everything I think you might agree on this, everything is happening so much faster than I think it used to. And that might just be bias, not sure, but I feel like we’ll probably within a period of three to five days, get the vast majority of 10% back over such a short period of time that if you’re not laser quick and take a leap of faith, it would be very easy to miss. Now, with new cash coming in, that’s fine. I had a retiree, going to retire probably about eight years from Warner Brothers, bringing a bunch of rollovers close to a million bucks. All but like 30 grand of it is sitting in cash. And I told him, I’m like, you’re the luckiest. He literally, when he did the rollover checks, was literally right. I think we were still like 43 something. Anyways, I’m like, listen, you’re going to be a unicorn situation because your returns are going to be unbelievable compared to most people, you know, based on the fact that we just got lucky that they happen to sell out when you rolled over. At a certain point, I haven’t invested it.
[00:32:43.640] – Matthew
The markets dropped precipitously and I think it probably goes a little further and as soon as we get a little bit of momentum, I’ve been flirting with, like, after seeing today, I was kind of thinking about it, by my God, maybe not yet. But I was like, listen, you’re going to have a unicorn situation because your portfolio is going to be ridiculous because when it does come back, you’re going to have bought in at the brand new lows. And it’s interesting.
[00:33:09.630] – Sean
Well, yeah. This has been really fun to talk through your strategy, what’s going on in the market. This has been really insightful. I hope our audience really enjoys what you had to say. What I’d like to do next is jump into the rapid fire round. This is the part of the episode where we get to find out who Matthew really is.
[00:33:24.220] – Matthew
Perfect. Let’s do it. I’ll be quick.
[00:33:27.490] – Sean
We got some good questions for you, so if you could try to answer each question 15 seconds or less.
[00:33:31.900] – Matthew
I’ll keep to that.
[00:33:33.060] – Sean
Here we go. What is your favorite podcast?
[00:33:36.010] – Matthew
Favorite podcast would be the Compound. It’s actually run by another wealth management firm, but they’re just regular guys, kind of talk regular like we do. Not the financial jargon. Think I hit.
[00:33:48.730] – Sean
No, you’re good. If you go a little over. Next one is what is your favorite movie?
[00:33:54.010] – Matthew
Rocky. I grew up with four stations in the Midwest on a wood box TV and Rocky was on every Saturday. And it’s a story I relate to very well. I love Rocky.
[00:34:04.210] – Sean
Yes. Great story. What is the best investment advice you ever received?
[00:34:09.830] – Matthew
Invest in yourself and take massive risks. I like, that massive. I mean, I slept in a sleeping bag on January 3 on 80 for four days, crossing the country. I have the risk tolerance of a rhinoceros. It’s a little different now with two kids, but when you’re young, just throw it against the wall, follow that instinct, go for it, whatever it is.
[00:34:34.190] – Sean
Let’s flip the equation. What is the worst investment advice you ever received?
[00:34:39.970] – Matthew
Worst investment advice? Buy things, you know, and like, it’s kind of a double edged sword because it can work out really well, but I’ve seen that hurt more people because they’re like, Oh, I really oatley is a fantastic example. It’s just the newest one. I love it. I drink it every day. That’s great. No one else does.
[00:35:00.610] – Sean
Thank you for saying that, because it doesn’t tell us the whole picture of what’s going on with the business. Yes, I love Spotify. Would I ever invest in a music platform? Hell no.
[00:35:12.310] – Matthew
Yeah, exactly right.
[00:35:15.110] – Sean
All right, and last question here. This is a time machine question we’re going to hop into DeLorean. If you could give your younger self advice, what age would you visit and what would you say?
[00:35:25.090] – Matthew
I would have traveled to 2005 and I would have told myself to not stress so much about the future because it’s all going to be greater than I could have ever imagined.
[00:35:39.380] – Sean
Nice. Great advice. Well, turn it over to you. Where can the audience reach you?
[00:35:45.430] – Matthew
I love posting stuff. I think it’s interesting. On Instagram, it’s Morozky, MJ, Instagram, facebook is Goodsteinwellsmanagement or Goodsteenwm.com and then LinkedIn, you can find any of those platforms. Awesome.
[00:36:00.030] – Sean
Well, thank you so much for your time. Matthew, this is great.
[00:36:02.790] – Matthew
That’s fantastic. Thank you, Sean.
[00:36:10.370] – Sean
Hey, I just want to say thanks for checking out this podcast. I know your time is valuable and there’s a lot of other podcasts out there you could be listening to. So thanks for taking the time to listen to my guest story. If you did enjoy this podcast episode, could you head over to itunes and leave a five star review? That would be much appreciated. Thank you. And last but not least on this podcast, some episodes we do talk about stocks. And please keep in mind, this podcast is for entertainment purposes only. So if you did hear any buy or sell recommendations, please don’t make those decisions based solely on what you hear. Alright, thanks a lot.
[00:36:46.470] – Sean
See ya.